Did Young Voters Decide the 2017 UK General Election?

Oh, so who saw that coming? The UK general election was called by Prime Minister Theresa May in order to secure a larger mandate before Brexit negotiations, but it ended with no party winning an overall majority in the House of Commons.

The result ran contrary to weeks of opinion polls, which showed the Conservatives with a clear lead over Labour. Only on the eve of the election did a handful of much-criticized polls from YouGov and Survation accurately predict the outcome. So what actually happened?

Many political journalists and commentators quickly pointed to a surge in turnout among younger voters as the reason for the shock result. Although the media rapidly circulated the claim that 72% of 18- to 24-year-olds had voted, BuzzFeed reported that this had not been verified and may have been incorrect.

What is clear is that Labour made significant gains in a number of student-heavy areas across the UK. Sheffield and Canterbury, the latter captured by Labour for the first time, are both student strongholds, and registration among young people surged. According to the Conservatives, 8,000 new voters registered in Canterbury, and turnout increased by 7%. In the end, the seat was won by Labour's Rosie Duffield by just 187 votes. Nationally, polling expert Professor John Curtice said: "The age divide showed up in the election result. In constituencies where under-25s made up less than 7% of the population, Labour's vote rose by 2.5%. In constituencies where under-25s made up more than 10% of the population, Labour's vote rose by 4%." The anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats also saw their vote increase in some student areas.

In the previous three elections, turnout among young people had hovered around 40%. While it is not clear whether that figure rose this year, there are strong signs that students and other young people, so often dismissed as lazy and apathetic, had a clear impact. For months, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn courted younger voters by promising free university tuition, giving interviews with hip-hop stars, and appearing in magazines such as NME and Kerrang. His candid, plainspoken politics and left-wing idealism captured the imagination of many first-time voters, just as his rallies around the country drew huge crowds, in a scene reminiscent of Bernie Sanders in the United States.

What Happens Next?

Good question. The most likely answer is some kind of coalition between the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in Northern Ireland. That would provide an overall majority and allow Theresa May to remain as prime minister, although whether she can continue in office after such a humiliating defeat remains to be seen.

If that happens, then the outcome young people hoped for is unlikely to materialize, though there may be some comfort in the fact that the Conservatives would not have a strong majority. It would also mean no free university tuition, and probably no change to the Conservative Party's preferred approach to Brexit negotiations.

One thing is certain: a bigger, reinvigorated Labour Party, buoyed by gains in seats and prestige, will enjoy every showdown with the Conservatives that lies ahead.